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The next 1,000 years of space travel
ONE THOUSAND YEARS IN SPACE
A Timetable For The Third Millenium
===================================
Reading the contribution by John McDonnell (The 21st Century: Where Do
We Go After Mars?) (2100AD.TXT) I thought it might be interesting to
share my thoughts (speculations?) on human progress in space over the
next 1,000 years.
My "Space Timetable" has been developing over the last year or so. It's
not based on John McDonnell's work, as will be seen by the many ways in
which it diverges from his projections.
Perhaps the most important difference, apart from the much longer
timescale, is that I have attempted to place space development in a
broader context, which is why there are economic and other indicators
for each period.
I welcome any and all comments on my timetable. I hope we might be able
to begin an interesting and constructive debate on this theme.
Jim Mangles
Wortham, Diss,
Norfolk, England
100020,1731
INTRODUCTION:
------------
The purpose of this document is to put our present state of development,
including currently planned or projected missions (such as manned
expeditions to Mars) into a broader future-historical perspective.
However, a warning: To abbreviate Freeman Dysan (in "Infinite in all
Directions") forecasts that look more than ten years into the future do
not discuss probabilities, but possibilities. Forecasts of the more
distant future are more properly the business of science fiction than
carefully calculated economic models, because before too long, the
unpredictable will overwhelm the predictable.
Of course, the events I predict will not happen as and when I say, but I
believe that the broad sweep is realistic and in line with precedent.
That is why I think the exercise is worthwhile.
It is 500 years since Columbus discovered America (Footnote 1) and
European "conquest" of the rest of the planet was essentially over about 100
years ago. Today the settlement of the Solar System is an equivalent task. It
should be no harder and with no locals it's much easier to justify morally.
I'm projecting that the full settlement and development of the Solar
System will take about 300 years. Settlement of the Galaxy will be a
much vaster undertaking, of course, but I am forecasting that with
the passage of another 300 years or so, humanity will have effectively
occupied our stellar neighbourhood out about 20 Light Years, and by
the end of the millenium we'll have settled out to some 80 Light Years,
with our automatic precursors going ahead to prepare the way for us (see
below) and flyby probes reaching almost twice as far away, out to 150
Light Years. However, even that volume of space would only represent
about one millionth of the whole of our galaxy.
The growth rate of scientific knowledge and technology since the 15th
century have been at least as impressive as that I'm forecasting here,
and shows no sign of slowing; indeed, if anything, the pace is
accelerating.(Footnote 2)
FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTIONS:
-----------------------
(A)
The human race is not wiped out or set back to the stone age by nuclear
war, giant meteor strike, global warming or new ice age (Footnote 3) in
the course of the next two hundred years or so. After that, these events
could no longer stop us. If we are then spared a nearby (10 LY)
supernova for another 300 or 400 years, we (Footnote 4) should be
virtually immortal.
(B)
There are no unexpected scientific discoveries that change the rules.
Faster that light travel is the classic example. If any such assumptions
were included, this whole work would then be nothing but science
fiction (Footnote 5).
OTHER ASSUMPTIONS:
-----------------
There are a few other assumptions that I should declare. Where they
involve technology, they are based on what is known to be at least
theoretically possible - we're just waiting for the engineering to be
worked out. Where they involve scientific data we lack certainty about,
I have made what seems the most reasonable guess:
(A)
I've assumed a large ratio of stars have planets, asteroids, etc.
(B)
But I've also assumed that they are all lifeless, and we certainly
don't find any intelligent aliens. (Footnote 6)
(C)
We can eventually build vehicles that are able to reach between 0.1
and, say, 0.33 of the speed of light. This assumption implies a lot of
other assumptions, such as laser-boosted solar sails, anti-matter
propulsion, interstellar ramjets, etc. etc., but we know most of these
can work in principle; it's just a matter of finding the resources,
working out the details and building the beast. Also, it's not necessary
for all of the possibilities to work. One or two will do.
(D)
We can develop artificial intelligence and, most importantly, von
Neumann machines, which I've chosen here to call ART, or Autonomously
Reproducing Technology.(Footnote 7) ART is vital for the rapid
development of the Solar System that I envisage; however it is
completely essential for the interstellar exploration and colonisation
strategy I assume. However, on a few-hundred-year timescale, I believe
ART or something very similar is inevitable.
ART is an essential component of the first wave of automatic probes that
will scout out the stellar neighbourhood for us. To keep a vehicle as
complex as these will be fully functional, when they must operate
for decades or even centuries many light years from Earth, is a huge
challenge. It requires very high-intelligence computing, able not just
to think for itself. The system must be capable of initiating repairs
and enhancements to the vehicle and instruments, including itself,
without direction by Mission Control, and even to think up and implement
it's own improvements to the hardware and mission.
The second wave of interstellar automatic craft will rendezvous with
target star systems. ART will organise and carry out a detailed survey
of the system. Then, it will start manufacturing the equipment needed to
develop the system into a home for people. At first this will involve
locating the necessary raw materials, presumable on asteroids initially.
The mining and refining, manufacturing and assembly phase will follow.
Eventually, an entire system "economy" will develop, terraforming
planets, building habitats, erecting the whole infrastructure ready for
the humans to arrive. And all performed on it's own, without any human
advice or assistance, by ART.(Footnote 8)
(E)
I've also made one political/sociological assumption: Sometime about
the middle of the next century humanity comes to its senses and begins
effective control of Earth's population. Eventually, about 250 years
later, the population of Earth is stabilised at one billion. That is an
arbitrary number, but seems a reasonable guess for an industry-free
natural and historical reserve-cum-vacation-world that is Earth's
likely fate in my overall scenario.(Footnote 9)
ABOUT THE INDICATORS:
--------------------
It may not be apparent, but when you study the timetable below,
especially for later periods, the figures for economy, energy generation
and non-Earth population are all based on remarkably modest growth
rates. In each case they are similar to that experienced over the last
300 years here on Earth.(Footnote 10)
For most of the time, economic and energy growth are intertwined;
indeed, in a very real way, they are two measures of the same thing. But
they also interact with population growth, especially in space. However,
as we develop the technology, especially the vehicles, we will need to
get to the the stars, energy capacity begins to spiral away, much faster
than what you might call the "real" economy. This has happened before,
although on a smaller scale than here envisaged. For example, the energy
requirements of the WWII Manhattan Project significantly enhanced the
power generation capacity of the US, but did not benefit the general
national energy situation, at least not directly and not at first.
Besides, as I studied these numbers, I became more and more aware that a
definition of what might be meant by the term "economy" becomes more and
more imponderable as time goes on. Does it have any meaning when almost
all work is done by automatic machines without any human interference,
on remote star systems that cannot interact directly with the
traditional economy?
Individual prosperity values follow automatically from the economic and
population assumptions. But, again, what does it mean to say that an
average individual has an economic, or purchasing, power one billion
times greater than today? (Footnote 11)
The cost of lifting something to LEO follows from energy growth, but not
quite, because I assume that, especially in the latter centuries, most
energy capacity is not available around about the Earth. (Footnote 12)
Computing power is assumed to grow in line with the sort of rate we have
seen over recent years, but slowing relatively soon, as fundamental
physical limits get in the way. Still, it's a pretty dramatic
enhancement over current computers, an eventual improvement of some 500
billion times. I think it's more than enough to ensure we have ART
before all that long.
KEY TO ABBREVIATIONS USED IN TIMETABLE:
--------------------------------------
THE INDICATORS:
NOTES:
1: All except EPOP and SPOP are relative to 1990 values: 1990 = 1
2: EPOP and SPOP are actual numbers of people.
ECON = Total human economic product
ENER = Total human energy production capacity
PROP = Average individual human wealth
EPOP = Number of people on Earth
SPOP = Number of people not on Earth
COMP = Computing processing power/speed/price/convenience (subjective)
CLEO = Cost per unit mass from Earth surface to LEO
OTHER ABBREVIATIONS:
K = 1 x one thousand
M = K x one thousand
B = M x one thousand
LEO = Low Earth orbit
GEO = Geostationary Earth orbit
SPS = Solar power satellite
ART = Autonomously Reproducing Technology
G = One Earth gravity
V = Velocity
LY = Light year
L = Speed of light
(U) = Unmanned mission
(M) = Manned mission
THE SPACE TIMETABLE
===================
BY THE YEAR 2000
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
1.28 1.28 1.1 8.0B 20 100 50%
Shuttle-C
Solar grazer (U)
Jupiter orbiter (U)
Mercury & Titan orbiters (U)
Mars rover (U)
Lunar polar orbiter (U)
LEO space station (M)
BY THE YEAR 2010
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
1.63 1.64 1.2 9.3B 200 5K 27%
Aerospace plane
Heavy lift (150-200 tons to LEO) launch vehicle
LEO-Moon shuttle
Electric propulsion motor
Solar sail-propelled deep-space probes
Orbital tether boosting/braking
Saturn orbiter (U)
Mercury, Titan & Venus landers (U)
Asteroid & Mars sample returns (U)
Return to Moon (M)
Nearby asteroid mission (M)
Large LEO space station(s) (M)
Lunar orbital station (M)
Lunar surface base (M)
BY THE YEAR 2020
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
2.08 2.08 1.4 10.7B 1K 1550K 16%
Prototype power-generating fusion reactor
Deep space long duration manned vehicle
High delta-V, low-G, long-duration probe vehicles
Pluto orbiter (U)
Titan sample return (U)
Saturn ring explorer (U)
Numerous Martian orbital & surface missions (U)
Extensive lunar surface surveying (M)
Mars flyby & Phobos landing (M)
Lunar mining (M)
Lunar mass driver operational (M)
Private enterprise operations in Earth orbit (M)
Small GEO SPS (M)
L5 construction shack (M)
BY THE YEAR 2030
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
2.64 2.65 1.6 13.5B 10K 2M 10%
Experimental space-based fusion reactor
500-1,000 tons to LEO single-stage-to-orbit vehicle
Mars manned mission vehicle
Trans-Pluto mission (0.01 LY) (U)
Venus surface rover (U)
Solar corona mission (250,000 kilometres altitude) (U)
Asteroid belt survey (U)
Mars landing (M)
Phobos base (M)
More lunar bases (M)
First L5 habitat occupied (M)
Private enterprise operations on Moon (M)
Full-scale SPS (M)
BY THE YEAR 2040
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
3.34 3.36 1.8 14.7B 60K 20M 6.6%
Universal acceptance of Earth population reduction plan
High-energy fusion-electric propulsion motor
Prototype ART system
Recycling ship between Earth & Mars
Scheduled Earth-Mars sail-propelled automatic cargo vehicles
Jovian airship (U)
Remote asteroid mass-driver construction experiment (U)
Systematic, detailed exploration of Jupiter space (U)
Missions to asteroid belt (M)
Permanent Mars base (M)
Phobos mining & fuel refining (M)
Farside lunar observatory (M)
Private enterprise GEO SPS's (M)
First L5 habitat complete, second under construction (M)
Moon self-sufficient in H2O (M)
BY THE YEAR 2050
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
4.21 4.25 2.1 15.9B 230K 100M 4.6%
Scheduled commercial passenger flights to L5 & Moon
High delta-V, low-G deep space manned ship
Phobos tether for Mars ascent/decent boost
Long baseline (50 AU) observatory system (U)
ART construction of fuel mining & refining facility in Jupiter space (U)
Systematic, detailed exploration of Saturn, Uranus & Neptune space (U)
Mission to Jupiter space (M)
Remote orbital optical interferometer (M)
Habitat & SPS boom begins in Earth-Moon space (M)
First families emigrate to Moon (M)
Private enterprise operations on Mars (M)
Mars self-sufficient in H2O (M)
1,000 year Martian terraforming project begins
BY THE YEAR 2060
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
5.30 5.36 2.5 16.9B 800K 500M 3.4%
Space activities now completely self-financing
Scheduled commercial passenger flights to Mars
Laser-boosted-sail miniature ultra-fast probe platform
Semi-permanent Saturnian airship (U)
Automatic survey of Solar System effectively complete (U)
Extensive ART development of Jupiter space (U)
Mission to Saturn space (M)
Manned base in Jupiter space (M)
Private enterprise mining bases in asteroid belt (M)
First families emigrate to Mars (M)
Industry starts migration from Earth to space (M)
BY THE YEAR 2080
--------------------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
8.33 8.47 3.7 18.1B 5.9M 5B 2.0%
Earth population peaks
Space activities now subsidise Earth economy
Earth-Mars passenger transit time now 4 to 6 weeks
Delta-V = 0.1L solar sail probe vehicle
ART development of remainder of Solar System (U)
First interstellar flyby probe departs (U)
Uranus, Neptune & Pluto missions (M)
Mercury landing (M)
Manned base in Saturn space (M)
First 1M+ city on Mars (M)
Asteroid belt habitat construction (M)
Colony in Jupiter space (M)
Over 50 habitats in Earth-Moon space (M)
SPS produce 25% of Earth's electricity (M)
BY THE YEAR 2100
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
12.9 13.3 5.9 17.6B 26.6M 20B 1.3%
Earth population begins to fall
Mars becomes independent nation in UN
Manned survey of Solar System now effectively complete
More than 100 habitats in Earth-Moon space
Colonisation & habitat numbers grow round Mars, asteroids & Jupiter (M)
Space elevators for Moon & Mars (M)
BY THE YEAR 2125
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
22.2 23.2 12 15.0B 98.7M 50B 0.8%
Delta-V = 0.2L sail/ramscoop probe vehicle
First interstellar rendezvous ART probe departs (U)
BY THE YEAR 2150
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
37.1 39.5 26 11.2B 216M 100B 0.6%
10% Human Economy is off-Earth
The Moon & some habitats become independent
Flyby probe data from over 10 stars within 10 LY (U)
Permanent bases throughout Solar System (M)
Space elevator for Earth (M)
Colonisation of Jovian & Saturnian Moons (M)
BY THE YEAR 2175
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
61.7 67.1 70 6.9B 348M 160B 0.5%
Mars economy is largest in UN
Earth-Jupiter passenger transit time now 2 Months
Martian immigration ceases & population stabilised at 60M (M)
Population explosion in Asteroid belt & Jupiter space (M)
BY THE YEAR 2200
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
100 112 186 3.9B 460M 200B 0.4%
Space economy is larger than Earth's
Flyby probe data from over 30 stars within 15 LY (U)
ARETs begin exploitation in 2 star systems within 7 LY (U)
1,000 year project to terraform Venus begins
BY THE YEAR 2250
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
271 323 994 1.5B 734M 250B 0.3%
Delta-V = 0.33L anti-matter/photon probe vehicle
Flyby probe data from over 70 stars within 20 LY (U)
ART in 6 star systems within 10 LY (U)
BY THE YEAR 2300
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
734 945 2.8K 1.0B 1.13B 300B 0.25%
More humans in space than on Earth
Jovian Federation (pop = 150M) has largest economy & population in UN
Earth's population now stabilised at 1B
Delta-V = 0.25L anti-matter/photon colonisation vehicle
Flyby probe data from over 150 stars within 30 LY (U)
ART in 15 star systems within 8 LY (U)
ART begins terraforming selected planets in stellar systems (U)
First interstellar colony ship leaves (M)
BY THE YEAR 2400
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
5.6K 8.8K 13.7K 1.0B 2.3B 350B 0.2%
Flyby probes have reached 650 stars within 50 LY (U)
Human colonies in 5 stellar systems within 10 LY (M)
BY THE YEAR 2500
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
46K 93K 77K 1.0B 3.7B 400B 0.17%
Non-solar population exceeds 1B (M)
Flyby probes have reached 2,500 stars within 80 LY (U)
Human colonies in 25 stellar systems within 20 LY (M)
BY THE YEAR 2750
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
11.5M 50M 7.5M 1.0B 12B 450B 0.13%
Non-solar population = 2 x solar population (M)
Flyby probes have reached 15,000 stars within 150 LY (U)
Human colonies in 150 stellar systems within 40 LY (M)
BY THE YEAR 3000
----------------
ECON ENER PROP EPOP SPOP COMP CLEO
4.6B 100B 1B 1B 35B 500B 0.1%
Non-solar population = 10 x solar population (M)
Earth no longer most populous planet (M)
Flyby probes have reached 90,000 stars within 300 LY (U)
Human colonies in 500 stellar systems within 80 LY (M)
POSTSCRIPT
----------
By this time, there would be few things able to stop humanity going on
to colonize and develop the whole Galaxy, except perhaps ART running out
of control, or collision with another species set on the same goal.
Will we meet them? I think that if we don't find them by 3000
AD, it's very unlikely to happen later. I'm not going to go through the
whole rigmarole about the Drake equation now, but consider this:
The Solar System is about 5 billion years old, and human beings have
been around on Earth for maybe a million years. If my timetable turns
out to resemble the truth, we will, by 3000 AD, have been a space-faring
species for about 1,000 years. The Galaxy is about 100,000 light years
across. If we continue to expand out into it and we keep expanding at
rather less than 0.1 Light Years/Year, we'll have occupied it all (as
I'm sure we will if we're allowed to) in roughly one million years. That
is only 0.01% of the galactic age.
Our Galaxy is about twice the age of the Solar System. It contains as
many as 500,000,000,000 stars, and probably well over half are much
older than our own sun. Therefore if it contains many civilisations,
most must be older, by many millions of years, than ours. We must assume
that if they exist, another species could (and would) also fill the
Galaxy in one million years.
It's not credible to suppose that among this huge star population, there
are going to be lots of technical civilisations like ourselves one fine
day in the future, but we just happen to be the first to develop
starflight. That simply does not stack up.
It seems that the first species with starflight wins the prize: the
whole Galaxy. If just one other species with similar ambitions had
developed in our galaxy as little as 1/10,000th ahead of us on the
galactic time scale, we would know. They would already be here. In other
words, we would know that if we had found no intelligent aliens by 3000
AD, we were almost certainly alone.(Footnote 13)
Thus, by 3000 AD it might be almost certain that we were heirs to the
whole galaxy. The first expedition to Andromeda can be expected to
leave around 1,000,000 AD. In astronomical terms, we're going to spread
like wildfire.
FOOTNOTES:
---------
(1)
OK, that's a Eurocentric viewpoint, but let's face it: for whatever
reasons, the locals never discovered Europe
(2)
To take just one clear example: from 1903 to 1969, aerospace technology
developed from a manned range/velocity capability of 250 ft/25 mph
(Kitty Hawk) to 500,000 miles/25,000 mph (Apollo round trip). That's a
10 million-fold growth in range and 1,000-fold growth in velocity in
only two-thirds of a century.....
(3)
The last two are both equally likely or unlikely, I suspect, but that's
another story ...
(4)
The species, not the individual.
(5)
Some people will say it is anyway, of course. Maybe they're right, but
then - what's wrong with science fiction? Looking at it another way,
this document must be science fiction, because the one virtual certainty
is that my second assumption is incorrect. It would be very surprising -
and very boreing - if there are no unexpected breakthroughs in the next
1,000 years. Therefore, the real future will not be like this one. It
will be much more exciting! However, I think the exercise is justified
for the purpose of demonstrating just what is possible with what we
already know. I find that inspirational enough to be going along with
As our knowledge increases, the door to the stars opens yet wider.
(6)
Sorry, but look at it this way: Reality can only get better. (Or worse,
depending on how nasty they are.)
(7)
The concept of autonomous self-replicating automata was first developed
by John von Neumann, the Hungarian/American mathematician. Apart from
his seminal work on mathematical physics and quantum mechanics in
particular, he invented a new branch of mathematics, Game Theory, and
was one of the key participants, with Alan Turing, in the development of
the theoretical basis of the modern digital computer.
Von Neumann showed that it was theoretically possible to design a
machine that could make a copy of itself from basic raw materials. ART
takes that idea, marries it to artificial intelligence, and develops it
into what might be called a self-reproducing universal constructor (SUC
didn't seem as good an acronym as ART.)
In my scenario, the automatic interstellar spacecraft is itself a self
reproducing universal constructor. After arriving at it's destination
star, it searches out the materials it needs to replicate itself, then
makes as many copies or other specialist machines required for the
purpose, and proceeds to turn the system into a fit place for human
beings to live in. Obviously, with information transmissions limited to
the speed of light and the vehicle certainly many light years from human
guidance, it's going to have to get on with things on it's own. Thus
very advanced computing, incorporating true artificial intelligence,
will be an absolute necessity for ART to work.
(8)
This leads to all sorts of interesting speculations. For example: ART
can build and launch further ART-guided vehicles to yet more distant
stars; if there was any actual physical objects worth sending back to
the Solar System, ART could go into the export business; ART could
possibly carry human DNA, and when things were ready, breed the new
population on the spot; ART could even carry the human genetic code in
its own memory. It's even possible that if we (or, perhaps, ART) learn
how to build a Stargate (remember 2001?) us humans could arrive
instantly to take over our new home, and eventually we would have a
network of such gates that could take us all over the galaxy in a
flash.
But, thinking of 2001 again, might ART not also decide that it can
improve on our genetic code? Or decline to accept the arrival of nasty,
untidy biological entities who will mess up its nice shiny new stellar
system? Could ART eventually form a sort of ring of forts around the
Solar System to prevent us contaminating the rest of a galaxy that it
plans to keep for itself? Or might ART decide the best answer is to send
a few missiles or perhaps an invasion to get rid of its inconvenient
creators for all time? Is ART the wrong name? Would HAL be better?
(9)
Actually, sanity about Earth's population is not essential for my space
timetable. It just places the whole thing in a much more pleasant
terrestrial scenario. If Earth's population is not controlled, the need
to get into space is greater, not less. But it might be harder to get
things properly started.
(10)
At least by "Western" civilisation (can we call Japan "Western"?)
(11)
I, for one, can't imagine! This represents something like the entire GNP
of today's United States! Could the typical mud-hovel-dwelling medieval
peasant of 1,000 years ago have imagined the resources we - or at least
those of us in the developed parts of this planet - have at our
individual disposal today?
(12)
A reduction in cost-to-orbit of one thousand-fold may not seem that
much, but remember this is in the context of vastly greater economic
power. It could mean that the cost to an individual of placing, say, a
ton into LEO is roughly similar to the cost of a local phone call to us
today.
But that's not so out of line with progress so far. For example, the
last time I flew from London to New York, my aircraft followed the route
of Erik the Red (more or less), when he led the Viking expedition
that is reputed to have visited Massachusetts about 1,000 years ago.
Including a 2-hour congestion delay on the tarmac at London and more
delays while we stacked over New York, I completed my journey in about 9
hours, travelling at 35,000 feet along with 300 or so others in the air-
conditioned luxury of coach class. (Don't laugh. How do you think coach
class would look after several months in an open longboat, rowing
through the arctic seas?) The cost of my trip was an almost unmeasurably
small fraction of the current world economy. Erik, on the other hand,
took months on his voyage, suffered numerous trials and tribulations,
and was only able to go because he had a significant portion of the
resources of the Viking state at his disposal.
Undoubtedly it takes vastly more energy to move a 747 from Europe to
America at 550 mph than a Viking longship at (what?) 3 mph. But the
first task is trivial to us and the second was major to the Vikings.
(13)
This does not rule out non-sentient lifeforms, or sentient beings with
totally different ambitions - although that would seem to defy the logic
of whatever the equivalent of their genes might be. It just rules out
serious rivals for ownership of the Galaxy.
JEM
July 1991
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